Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 4.645879 5.454476 6.348589 7.408699 8.629366 9.988828 11.615527
2025-08-24 3.309944 4.369464 5.668770 7.370582 9.531090 12.171815 15.632205
2025-08-31 2.488312 3.629318 5.155949 7.327606 10.313184 14.245496 19.783096
2025-09-07 2.049918 3.254812 4.989918 7.633868 11.514704 16.945782 25.049180
2025-09-14 1.671949 2.866054 4.702631 7.676949 12.300277 19.119511 29.811823
2025-09-21 1.387454 2.550892 4.450451 7.699808 13.014886 21.226007 34.671791
2025-09-28 1.166781 2.289559 4.226738 7.710710 13.679411 23.292670 39.656949
2025-10-05 1.095935 2.273554 4.402774 8.397145 15.509908 27.368675 48.211227
2025-10-12 0.976820 2.142235 4.349723 8.666839 16.650764 30.417126 55.372568
2025-10-19 0.876309 2.026216 4.302383 8.931354 17.799852 33.576056 63.003494
2025-10-26 0.766570 1.868583 4.147399 8.963945 18.516707 36.034350 69.627151
2025-11-02 0.645908 1.662203 3.859682 8.689576 18.608730 37.360463 74.326175
2025-11-09 0.530476 1.446307 3.522342 8.276811 18.403103 38.160917 78.236419
2025-11-16 0.455031 1.310079 3.336108 8.157137 18.776904 40.108547 84.520534
2025-11-23 0.394124 1.196684 3.181830 8.083128 19.233661 42.260166 91.402493
2025-11-30 0.364594 1.159881 3.202169 8.408509 20.587101 46.341200 102.480076
2025-12-07 0.324021 1.082834 3.109673 8.452165 21.315478 49.193785 111.301826
2025-12-14 0.287913 1.010130 3.015277 8.475934 21.997996 52.008344 120.285052
2025-12-21 0.256005 0.942406 2.921913 8.487420 22.650237 54.813365 129.484584
2025-12-28 0.255066 0.973263 3.103771 9.236764 25.160286 61.936542 148.591254
2026-01-04 0.237475 0.945002 3.114034 9.531055 26.582989 66.736840 162.971676
2026-01-11 0.221221 0.917478 3.121846 9.819665 28.023089 71.700427 178.109750
2026-01-18 0.199291 0.864182 3.043228 9.855216 28.817159 75.227159 190.266812